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Be very very careful what you wish for…. if you’re hoping that UAC/Google Ads gives you amazing breakout performance on iOS…

You probably notice this in Google-reported conversion metrics when you run Google UAC campaigns on iOS.

Your CPAs/ROAS numbers as seen in your Google Ads dashboard can look amazing.

…and if you use those to make budgeting decisions, the recommendation would be clear: invest more $$$ into Google ads.

The problem?

A lot of these conversions are not ‘real.’

They are ‘modeled’ conversions – according to Google’s own documentation. ‘modeled’ conversions can typically include:

🎩 users who are already actively using your product.

💍 retargeted users(or users who have installed but haven’t actively used the product)

📉 users who convert from other sources but Google claims credit for.

The result?

Google ads isnt always incremental in the way that you’d expect it to be based on the CPA/ROAS that they claim credit for.

…. you don’t really expect anything else if your opponent is also the referee.

If your Google Ads conversions look too good to be true, they probably are….

What do you do instead?

“Trust in God but lock your car.” – old jungle saying.

The key to dealing with a self-reporting platform is, well, not to believe their self-reporting.

✅ Treat only blended metrics as the source of truth(and all other platform reported metrics as directional at best).

🏃‍♂️ When you start/open up a channel, review incremental impact on your blended metrics to evaluate performance.

🥽 Use Media Mix Models(you can use basic spreadsheet based linear regression models – or those based on Robyn if you want DIY versions) to find out the ‘true’ value of conversions from each source.

You might just find that one half of your advertising was wasted – BUT you now know which half.

A REQUEST BEFORE YOU GO

I have a very important favor to ask, which as those of you who know me know I don’t do often. If you get any pleasure or inspiration from this episode, could you PLEASE leave a review on your favorite podcasting platform – be it iTunes, Overcast, Spotify or wherever you get your podcast fix. This podcast is very much a labor of love – and each episode takes many many hours to put together. When you write a review, it will not only be a great deal of encouragement to us, but it will also support getting the word out about the Mobile User Acquisition Show.

Constructive criticism and suggestions for improvement are welcome, whether on podcasting platforms – or by email to shamanth at rocketshiphq.com. We read all reviews & I want to make this podcast better.

Thank you – and I look forward to seeing you with the next episode!